How to Handle Uncertainty About the Future
When we don't know what to expect, we tend to stand still.
Uncertainty slows progress.
We need to know how to progress even in uncertain times.
What can we control?
We need to establish what we can and what we cannot control.
We cannot control the marketplace
The marketplace in which you operate is enormous and multi-faceted, and you cannot control everything that happens, which inevitably introduces a degree of uncertainty.
We cannot control the actions of politicians
Over the last 18 months politicians have imposed their will over the marketplace. We cannot predict any future legally mandated interventions. Political interventions in your marketplace introduce more uncertainty.
Certainty is a positive motivator
Certainty positively effects human minds. When we know what to expect, and we know what we want to achieve, then we make more rapid progress.
What can we be certain of?
We can only be certain of a few things:
General trends
Although we do not know any of the details, we can see that the world is moving according to general trends.
For example, there are trends towards greater use of information technology and to more automation. There are trends towards all things "green" and "sustainable". There are trends towards higher taxes and greater government spending.
Our goals and plans should align with general trends.
Whether you like the trends or not, we must ensure our goals and plans are taking them into account. We must adapt ourselves to the current trends, even if we don't like them.
You are free to fight the trends if you feel the need to, but your first task is "to survive", and only when you have secured your survival, should you then turn your mind to "making progress towards your ultimate goal".
What else can we be certain of?
- We must "add value to the marketplace".
- All businesses exist in order to "add value".
- Businesses that don't "add value to the marketplace", fail.
To add value, we must set SMART goals.
We must set, Specific, Measurable, Achievable, Realistic and Timely goals.
We can be certain that, to add value and succeed, we must act according to:
- Our SMART goals.
- A set of detailed written plans, which we review and evolve every day.
- Current trends.
- The latest interventions from politicians and their advisers.
- Marketplace conditions.
- The feedback results generated by our most recent actions.
Last word from US President Dwight Eisenhower. Eisenhower wrote to a military officer who claimed he needed to be given more resources before he could move,
"Do what you can, with what you've got, from where you are".
We can be certain of that.
SMART goal
A SMART goal is a business goal-setting method that turns vague hopes into clear action. It states one clear result, uses numbers to watch progress, sits within the team's real skills and tools, and comes with a firm end date. Remove any one of these parts and the goal stops being SMART.
CG4D Definition
Context: Business
Genus: Goal-setting method
- States a single clear result
- Uses numbers to track progress
- Is possible and realistic with present resources
- Has a firm deadline that drives action
Article Summary
Uncertainty never stops progress unless you let it; accept what you cannot control, spot the trends you can ride, set simple SMART goals that add value, then act today with the tools you have and adjust each step as you learn.