Avoiding Guesswork In Business
Avoiding Guesswork in Leadership and Management
Making choices based on a 'hunch' or 'gut feeling' is common for many managers and leaders. But let's face it - this approach is just guessing in disguise. And whilst it might seem like a quicker route, guessing can lead to big trouble.
The Trouble with Guesswork
Guessing often leads to mistakes. Every decision we make in business can have important results. If we guess, we can end up with results we didn't expect, waste valuable resources, or make wrong strategic choices. Plus, guessing doesn't just impact one decision; it can lead to a bad habit of always making rushed decisions.
Guessing also shows a weak way of solving problems and making decisions. Strong decision-making is a key skill for any leader. If we rely on guessing instead of solid data and analysis, it can damage our reputation with our team and others.
The Strength of Logic and Evidence in Decision Making
Instead of guessing, we should make decisions based on logical thinking and real evidence. The most powerful tool we have as humans is our logical mind. Our brains are designed to take in a lot of information and come to logical conclusions. It's important to use this power in our businesses.
Our brains work best with facts - these are the pieces of information we gather with our senses. Facts help us reduce the risk of uncertainty and give us a firm base for our decisions. By systematically gathering and studying relevant facts, we can make better-informed choices.
Using Your Brain Power to Its Full Extent
To use your brain power to its full extent, you need to focus on facts and logical thinking. This doesn't just mean having the right information, but using it properly. We need to critically look at data and consider many points of view. By encouraging an evidence-based decision-making culture in your organization, you can reduce the unknown, lower risks, and increase your chance of success.
In short, guesswork might seem like an easy path because it's fast and seems simple. But leaders and managers must avoid this temptation. Instead, they should develop a disciplined approach to decision-making that values rational thinking, evidence, and careful study of the data. The best way to succeed in any business decision is to use the power of your intellect, supported by evidence.
By steering clear of guesswork and promoting decisions based on evidence, leaders and managers can lead with confidence, knowing they're making the best decisions for their team, stakeholders, and organisation.
Keep in mind, "Never Guess" isn't just a catchy phrase - it's a rule you should live by as a leader or manager.
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Definition: Evidence-based decision making
Evidence-based decision making is the habit of choosing a course of action by using facts and tested information, rather than guessing. In business leadership, this process gathers fresh data, checks its truth, weighs options logically, and reviews results, so every choice stands on proof, lowers risk, and builds trust in the final outcome.
Show CG4D Definition
- Relies on current, checked facts and data
- Uses a clear, step-by-step method
- Tests ideas before acting to cut risk
- Reviews outcomes and learns for future choices
Article Summary
Great leaders do not roll dice with their firms; they gather facts, test ideas, and act on evidence, knowing that every data-backed choice cuts risk, saves resources and pushes the whole organisation towards steady, long-term success.
Frequently Asked Questions
Here are some questions that frequently get asked about this topic during our training sessions.
Why is guesswork risky for business leaders?
What do we mean by evidence based decisions?
How can managers gather useful facts before deciding?
Does using data always slow decisions down?
How does logical thinking in leadership reduce risk?
What habits build an evidence led culture at work?
Is there ever a place for gut feeling in business?
Thought of something that's not been answered? Ask Us Today!
Did You Know: Key Statistics
Gartner’s 2024 Data & Analytics Leadership survey shows firms that base at least 75% of strategic decisions on data are 23% more likely to exceed annual revenue targets than peers that rely on intuition. PwC’s 2023 UK CEO Survey finds 67% of managers still depend on gut feeling for key choices, and those teams report 19% higher project failure rates compared with data-led teams.About the Author: Chris Farmer
Chris Farmer is the founder of the Corporate Coach Group and has many years' experience in training leaders and managers, in both the public and private sectors, to achieve their organisational goals, especially during tough economic times. He is also well aware of the disciplines and problems associated with running a business.
Over the years, Chris has designed and delivered thousands of training programmes and has coached and motivated many management teams, groups and individuals. His training programmes are both structured and clear, designed to help delegates organise their thinking and, wherever necessary, to improve their techniques and skills.
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